Covid-19 (vaguely non-political thread!)

Discussion in 'UK Wine Forum' started by Alex Lake, Feb 24, 2020.

  1. Is there anywhere that publishes where the infections are being acquired? Strip out new cases in care homes and hospitals and I’ll bet it’s a totally different and more optimistic picture.

    Good news in France though. Bars and restaurants reopen on Tuesday, but with distancing. Family and friends very pleased about that.
  2. Last time “experiments in broadening out democratic processes so that citizens are actively involved” were rolled out in this country we ended up with Boaty McBoatface.
  3. I think the problem with drawing conclusions from how far eastern countries have tackled the virus is that many of their solutions are non-starters here. We wouldn't tolerate the kind of restrictions that could be implemented there. Secondly any technological solutions that have merit would not be implemented here due (I'm afraid) to government ineptitude. I'm not holding my breath as to when track and trace or the app are actually ready to roll out.

    De facto we are going to have to open up lockdown without any technical aids to isolate outbreaks and protect the vulnerable, though the government will of course try to mask this.

    I don't think this is a political statement it is the dismal truth
    Jonathan Hesford likes this.
  4. Hi Ed
    That article with the 54k is here About 7% have had coronavirus, says ONS survey (linked to the other story)

    The number says it excludes hospitals and care homes, but it's not clear if that includes staff in each. The article imply it is based on a sample of
    which sounds rather out of date.

    This also included a separate test, which estimated current number of infections at ~ 130k in England, but again, that might be a little out of date

    Last edited: May 30, 2020
    Jeremy Caan likes this.
  5. Not quite the last time, Mark...
    Last edited: May 30, 2020
  6. Jeez, not this again. Do you ever read Tom C’s guidance?
  7. The masks thing is divisive. The WHO haven't come out in favour of the general public wearing them. There are all sorts of studies that suggest they might be of some help in preventing airborne infection but nothing really solid that convinces me that wearing one is of any practical benefit unless in a forced crowded space, like a tube train or having to work closely with others, and even then they are only really stopping coughed or sneezed particles from spreading.

    They are a PITA to deal with, which is why you see so many people misusing them. Half the time people have them hanging under their chin or not covering their nose. They may stop us touching our mouths and noses but not our eyes. As soon as we take them off, we want to scratch our noses. I don't believe everyone is washing their mask after ever use.

    I use masks and gloves as part of my job while spraying vineyards, cleaning equipment and working with sulphur. Mine are far more protective than the things the public are wearing. I only wear them while I'm dealing with risky products and I wash them as soon as I take them off. I follow loads of other precautions that the public aren't doing, like wearing goggles and being super-careful about touching items with my gloves on that I may touch with my bare hands later.

    So I think they are primarily symbolic. They show that you care about others. They remind us that the virus is still out there. They give some of us a false sense of security. They make some of us feel like we are being controlled.
    Thom Blach and Mike Mitchell like this.
  8. a friend and his whole family are tested weekly on this scheme. They were contacted and asked to join. He’s even paid for it!
    Ian Sutton likes this.
  9. I read that the K number is the new thing adding to the R number as the main indicator. Can someone explain how it is obtained? I think it shows the number of infections from an single person in a cluster. Could not see the maths though.

    just as a reward and to help with thread drift some wit on the times site said it was the Special K because it dealt with cereal infectors.
  10. I haven't taken to wearing a mask yet, but I do wonder why health workers wear them if they offer no benefit.
    Graham Harvey and Sean Hardon like this.
  11. My local Chinese grocery was insisting on masks, and I had one with me so happily (or more accurately unhappily, as despite, or because of, being lovingly handmade by my mother, it was incredibly uncomfortable) wore it, but haven't been otherwise. I really can't see how it could be of benefit either to myself or others while in the open air.

    If I go back to public transport before things have got a lot better I certainly would wear one then.

    As for K - just looking at that what a non subscriber can see from that Times article, I already spy a stray % sign. As far as I can work out it is the variance in R, so if K=1 then everyone infects R people, whereas if it = 0 one person would have given it to everyone. There's an article here:

    Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
    Ian Sutton likes this.
  12. Re: Masks
    I think the open air bit seems to have wide agreement - that the time period of potential contact typically low, and the wind, rather than blowing it to you, tends to disperse it. Probably of use in a large crowd, but doesn't seem worthwhile if going for a walk

    Indoors and in close/regular proximity is where the transmission seems to be highest, hence the usage in supermarkets, public transport etc. It still seems to be a weak defence against catching the virus, but stronger against spreading it, but how effective for either doesn't seem to be accurately understood. Oddly using goggles never seems to get a mention as a potential defence for Joe public.
  13. The masks that nhs workers wear are (or should be) of a far higher specification than joe bloggs is being asked to wear.
    We are supposed to be saving effective ppe for key workers.
    Jonathan Hesford and Ian Sutton like this.
  14. I wear them in the supermarket because old ladies tut at me if I don’t.
    Sean Hardon likes this.
  15. Is there any data on tests on supermarket workers? If they’re not getting infected, then I’m beginning to wonder what’s going on...
  16. They certainly happily buzz about without masks. It's occurred to me that they would be a great vector if they were asymptomatic as they ignore distancing
    Sean Hardon likes this.
  17. Not all of them, but the younger ones tend to be a little gung-ho. I just think they would make very useful test cases.
    Ian Sutton likes this.
  18. I mentioned that weeks ago, and was mocked.

    You’re right, they’re not dropping like flies, though given their exposure to thousands of people weekly, one wonders why not. Ditto the 3 ladies in my local bakers exposed to hundreds of customers from all over the South East on a daily basis.

    Perhaps by chance they're all asymptomatic. Or Eric Burch’s thinking is spot on...
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2020
    Gareth J Welch likes this.
  19. I recall you mentioning it and felt you were given a hard time. I don't want to rely on anecdotes and don't claim to know the outcome (suggesting you did may have led to your downfall!) but it would be great to know what happened. I guess there won't have been a lot of testing, but supermarket HR departments must have an inkling.

    I know "Eric" and he's certainly a wise fellow. Time will tell, but I'd have hoped that we'd had enough time to get indicative results by now. Maybe the government are keeping them secret, although now would be the ideal time to release them.
  20. It seems like utter chaos to me.
    Alex Lake likes this.
  21. It would be extraordinary if no supermarket/shop workers were infected. The more interesting question is whether they are more infected than the population at large, and if there's a difference between public and non-public facing staff. I did see one report in which it was cited that 75% of market traders at a Lima fruit market were infected.

    Happy Virus Monday everyone, by the way.
  22. One would think that of all people the Italians should know what they're talking about. On the other hand, you might have the same thought about the English...
  23. Hard to argue with his unpublished no statistic "data", but that Reuter report is full of undefined terms: potency, (virus) strength, clinically non-existance....
    He said the virus is less lethal, that is one thing, then he said the viral load is "infinitesimal", that is totally another thing.
    And if the virus genome sequence doesnt change much, maybe it‘s people being different rather than virus being different?
  24. The BBC report no deaths from covid over the last 24 hours in Spain. What they don't do is add the context, available here - COVID-19 Community Mobility Report - of really quite big increases in movement, and drops in social isolation, from the beginning of May. Minus 80% to minus 40%, for example, at transit stations and workplaces.

    As an aside, I wonder how much of the inter-country variation might reflect different exposure to other corona viruses previously. This paper suggests the possibility - Different pattern of pre-existing SARS-COV-2 specific T cell immunity in SARS-recovered and uninfected individuals . But that's an idle thought, and has no bearing on what seems to be a continuing decline in cases in previously highly effected countries, despite steady and ongoing reductions in social isolation.
    Bryan Collins likes this.

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