|Tom Cannavan's wine-pages.com|
Liv-ex.com, October 2012
(analysed in detail in full report)
Chart of the Month
New 100 point chateaux vs the Bordeaux 500 Index. To receive 100 points for a vintage clearly not only impacts on the sale of that specific wine, but boosts the brand as a
whole. Ten vintages from six wines are featured in the index above: Clos Fourtet, Cos D’Estournel, Ducru Beaucaillou, Evangile, Leoville Poyferre and Pontet Canet. They were all
new additions to the 100 point club when Parkers’ in-bottle scores for the 2009 were announced at the end of February. Rumours around the anticipated scores led to prices
peaking just before they came out, and the wines have continued to ride on the accolade for their 2009s since then. Whereas the Bordeaux 500 as a whole has mirrored
the Liv-ex 100’s downward trajectory, its new 100 point wines have all experienced price gains year to date. That these are all non First Growths with high scoring vintages
suggests that a wine’s quality has the power to triumph over label in the current market.
Final Thought - Divergent Fortunes
The last three years have seen Liv-ex indices experience
both record highs and sudden corrections. But with the
market having showed stability for three months, it seems
an opportune time to take stock. Using the Bordeaux 500
and its constituent indices as our dataset, we find that
(even within Bordeaux) these dramatic market
movements have been far from universal.
Firstly, as Chart 1 shows, there are still a number of wines
that are hitting record highs. Of the 450 wines in the index
(excluding the recently added 2009s), 36 (8%) hit a new
price high in October, belying general market conditions.
Right Bank wines make up the majority, with 20 having
attained Mid-Price records this month. In light of their
recent upgrade, it should come as no surprise that
Angelus and Pavie are two of the big winners, with the 00,
01, 03, and 07 vintages for the latter all seeing new highs
in October. Clos Fourtet has seen six vintages peak in
price; Vieux Chateau Certan has seen four. Over on the
Left Bank Calon Segur is the big winner— with four
vintages hitting new price highs. The 2001 vintage is also
showing strength, with Cos, Pichon Lalande and Pontet
Canet all in the black.
On the flipside, many wines have now fallen to new price
lows. Forty-four wines in the index are now cheaper than at
any time since they entered the index (all wines enter in the
July of the year they become physically available). These
include three vintages of Ausone (05, 06, 08) and four of
Cheval (05, 06, 07, 08). It seems the newcomers to the
Grand Cru Classe A classification are performing rather
better than the incumbents. Moving on to the First Growths
and their second wines (which as Chart 2 shows, have
fallen further in price than any other group, at almost 35%)
the majority are now cheaper than they have been at any
point since 2010. A number of top 2000s have rewound
even further with Ausone, Cheval and Mission Haut Brion
having returned to their early-2007 pricing.
The market is clearly still in some stress, with direction
depending on individual, rather than collective, demand.
But with some wines never having been so cheap (on a
physical basis) there would also be some significant value
to be had.
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